Breakout Breakdown
Five players that could be poised for big seasons ahead.
The best thing about any NBA Draft cycle are those players that shoot up draft boards as more and more people come to appreciate their game and see what they can offer.
This past draft we had Cedric Coward, who wasn't on many board at the start of the season but worked his way up to be taken in the lottery by the Grizzlies. Back in 2023, Brandon Miller started the season in many first round mocks but again, rose quickly and was eventually taken with the number 2 pick by the Hornets ahead of the player who occupied the consensus number 2 spot most of the year, Scoot Henderson. There are plenty of other examples throughout recent memory as guys like Bub Carrington and Scottie Barnes had big years and rose up everyone's boards.
With that in mind, it's a great time of year to dig into the upcoming Draft class and see if there are players who are poised to have a big year, for one reason or another. Coming off a major injury, a transfer to a higher profile college or even just a steady rise in production year on year can all give impetus for a player to have a breakout year. I want to look at five players I feel could be those breakout guys this coming season and lay out why they are poised to have those breakouts.
Alvaro Folgueiras
Position: Forward | Height: 6ft 9in | Team: Iowa | Class: Junior
2024/25 Stats:
Background
A name that may be familiar to some of you out there, Folgueiras has featured on some preseason draft boards already and is generating some buzz. Rightly so in my opinion. Folgueiras spent his freshman and sophomore seasons with the Robert Morris Colonials in the Horizon League, picking up the Horizon League Player of the Year and making it on to the Horizon All-League First Team last season. Folgueiras played solid minutes off the bench in his freshman season, putting up averages of 17.8 minutes, 5.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.4 steals and 0.7 blocks per game while shooting a sub-par 28.6% from deep. Being inserted as a starter for his sophomore season, Folgueiras’ production showed marked improvement across the board as he averaged 29.3 minutes, 14.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks per game while seeing his percentage from deep increase to 41.3% on 3.1 attempts per game.
What’s to like?
For starters, Folgueiras offers versatility and a strong offensive skill set. He facilitates via strong court vision; he averaged 3.2 assists per game as a forward—a good amount for his position. He is also skilled in both pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop actions, regularly making plays from both the high and low post areas.
Folgueiras has an efficient scoring package and decent range on his jumper. He excels as a rim runner, with great finishing touch around the basket. He regularly displays finesse on his finishes around the rim and has developed into a more consistent shooter. He is a legitimate outside threat, shooting a fantastic 41.3% from deep on over three attempts per game last season.
One facet of his game that is always rock solid is his rebounding and defensive activity. Folgueiras is an active presence on glass and was ranked among the NCAA leaders in total and defensive rebounds. He has great timing, anticipation and instincts on both ends and challenges hard for every rebound. He has fantastic disruptive instincts too, with over 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks per game, showing a defensive versatility at both ends.
His motor always runs high and he displays a fiery competitiveness that shows up in all areas of his game. Nicknamed “El Pulpo” (“The Octopus”) for his long wingspan and ability to impact play across the court, he is consistently praised for his energy and physicality.
What needs work?
Although Folgueiras has great height and length, he needs to add muscle to better handle physical Big Ten and future NBA-level matchups in the post or on switches. Adding some extra strength would allow him to better withstand the rigors of battling with seasoned college and then NBA level players.
Another aspect of Folgueiras’ game that could stand to see an uptick is his shooting consistency, especially from deep. He shot a strong percentage from deep last season but the volume remains modest; an expansion of shot range and a quicker release would elevate his offensive profile and allow him to be a reliable shooter that defenses cannot afford to leave open.
One of Folgueiras' biggest issues this year has absolutely nothing to do with his game directly. Transitioning from the Horizon League to Iowa and the Big Ten will test his defensive discipline and ability to maintain production against stronger opponents so it will be interesting to see how he handles the step up in quality.
His playmaking is a strength, but a better understanding of spacing in half-court sets and minimizing turnovers will be key for his growth at the next level.
Summary
With his rare blend of size, efficient scoring (over 54% from the field, above 41% from three), rebounding, playmaking, and defensive versatility, Folgueiras arrives at Iowa as a proven Horizon League Player of the Year ready to translate that success into the Big Ten. His offseason exposure with Spain’s U20 squad only enhances his ability to hit the ground running and emerge as a breakout star next season.
Donovan Dent
Position: Guard | Height: 6ft 2in | Team: UCLA | Class: Senior
2024/25 Stats:
Background
Dent appeared in all 34 games (with two starts) in his freshman year, putting up 5.6 points, 2.3 assists, and 2.0 rebounds per game in limited minutes. He showcased his defensive potential, ranking second in team steals and third in blocks. Elevated to full-time starter for his sophomore year, Dent averaged 14.1 points and 5.4 assists per game. He earned Second-Team All-Mountain West honors while delivering multiple standout performances, such as game-winning layups and high-assist, zero-turnover efforts. Dent exploded into stardom during his junior year, capturing Mountain West Player of the Year while averaging 20.4 points and 6.4 assists—leading the league in scoring and ranking second in assists. He shot a scorching 40.9% from three and 49.0% from the field, earning multiple Mountain West Player of the Week honors and becoming a midseason contender for national awards like the Naismith and Oscar Robertson Trophies. He also amassed 1,400 career points, 493 assists, and 131 steals over three seasons at New Mexico.
What’s to like?
Dent is widely regarded as one of college basketball’s premier creators. He blends high assist totals with remarkably low turnover rates—an assist rate in the top 15 nationally paired with a turnover rate under 16%.
His pick-and-roll IQ is elite too: over half his possessions come via P&R, where he excels at both scoring and setting up teammates. Plus, in transition, he’s lightning fast—his average of 5.3 transition possessions per game ranks near the top in the NCAA, with efficiency to match.
As New Mexico’s offensive engine, Dent consistently put up high numbers. He averaged an impressive 20.4 points and 6.4 assists per game, earning Mountain West Player of the Year honors.
He can score in bursts—like a 33-point game with seven assists against Nevada, shooting 12-of-18 from the field while taking care of the ball. His shooting splits—about 49% overall, and 40.9% from deep—reflect his versatile scoring arsenal.
It's important to highlight the cerebral nature of Dent’s game. He creates through anticipation, deft passes, and composure under pressure—earning him praise as one of the best playmakers in the country.
Dent’s quickness lets him dominate in open court. He uses pace to get into the paint, drawing fouls and scoring efficiently. His finishing at the rim is creative—floaters, contortion layups, and powerful attacks that often outpace defenders.
While not elite physically, Dent brings energy on defense—averaging 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks per game, numbers that punch above his stature. He uses lateral quickness and effort to make plays, earning respect from observers.
What needs work?
At 6ft 2in and roughly 170–185 lbs, Dent lacks the ideal size for most NBA guards. While he compensates with effort and savvy, some teams may view his stature as a limiting factor defensively and in physical matchups at the next level.
Despite shooting well from deep (40.9% on limited attempts), Dent’s three-point volume is notably low—he took just 66 threes last season. This hesitancy can reduce his offensive versatility and spacing threat.
Dent thrives in transition and pick-and-roll environments, but his effectiveness drops noticeably in half-court situations. Defenses that slow the game down force him into lower-efficiency drives and contested attempts.
While his spot-up shooting can be effective when tapped into, overall consistency from three-point range is still a question mark—especially at the NBA level, where reliable perimeter scoring is crucial.
Dent’s penchant for attacking the rim is a double-edged sword. His drive-first approach sometimes results in forced, low-percentage shots when defenders collapse or when his body control is compromised.
While Dent brings energy defensively, his consistency on that end is variable. There can sometimes be lapses in defensive intensity and engagement—areas that need to be more reliable as he progresses.
Summary
Dent enters UCLA with all the ingredients for a breakout season: elite playmaking instincts, blazing end-to-end speed, and proven efficiency as the offensive engine at New Mexico, where he averaged 20.4 points and 6.4 assists while shooting 49% from the field. His exceptional assist-to-turnover ratio, dynamic pick-and-roll command, and ability to pressure the rim make him a natural fit to elevate UCLA’s tempo and offensive flow. If he increases his three-point volume while maintaining efficiency, Dent has the tools to emerge as one of the nation’s most impactful point guards in 2025–26.
Lamar Wilkerson
Position: Wing | Height: 6ft 5in | Team: Indiana | Class: 5-year Senior
2024/25 Stats:
Background
Wilkerson’s college basketball journey has been a steady climb from small-college dominance to national attention. He began at Three Rivers College in Missouri’s JUCO ranks, where he made an immediate impression with his scoring ability. As a freshman, he played only eight games but averaged a staggering 23.6 points along with 4.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.9 steals per contest. His sophomore year saw more sustained production over 27 games, posting 16.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while shooting 43.1% from the field, 40.9% from three, and 78.6% from the line — performances that earned him an honorable mention All-American nod at the junior college level.
Wilkerson transferred to Sam Houston State for the 2022–23 season, making the leap to Division I basketball. In his first year with the Bearkats, he came off the bench in all 30 appearances, averaging 7.4 points in 17.4 minutes while shooting efficiently from both the field and beyond the arc. His role expanded dramatically as a junior in 2023–24, when he started all 31 games, contributing 13.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game. He shot 42.8% overall and 34.7% from deep, earning First-Team All–Conference USA honors and helping lead Sam Houston to a 21–12 record and a strong 13–3 conference mark.
His senior campaign in 2024–25 was a breakout year that established him as one of the most dangerous shooters in the country. Wilkerson averaged 20.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game while shooting 47.7% from the field and an elite 44.5% from three-point range. He set a school record with 109 made threes, becoming the first SHSU player at the Division I level to average over 20 points per game. By season’s end, he had been named to the First-Team All–Conference USA for the second straight year and joined a select group of NCAA players to hit 100+ threes at over 44% accuracy.
Across his Sam Houston career, Wilkerson played in 95 games (63 starts), scoring 1,321 points and adding 339 rebounds, 125 assists, and 90 steals. His career shooting splits of 44.8% from the field, 40.0% from three, and 82.6% from the free-throw line reflect both his scoring talent and efficiency.
What’s to like?
Wilkerson shot an outstanding 44.5% from three and 47.7% overall from the field during the 2024–25 season—he ranked seventh nationally in three-point percentage. In Conference USA play, he led the league in scoring with 21.2 points per game, scoring in double digits in all 32 games and dropping 20+ points in nine conference games.
Wilkerson is a threat in all shooting scenarios—off-the-catch, off the dribble, and even with defenders closing out tight. He drains deep shots; for instance, he made 20 threes from beyond 25 feet last season, showcasing range that extends well past the arc.
He delivered in big moments, including a 29-point night (5-of-9 from three) to beat UTEP, and a 32-point performance (7-of-10 from deep) in a season finale win over New Mexico State. Over his career at Sam Houston, he broke the school’s single-season record for made three-pointers (109) and became the first player at the Division I level in school history to average over 20 points in a season.
Advanced metrics back up his influence: he posted an offensive box plus-minus of +6.9 and earned 4.5 win shares, with 3.7 coming on the offensive end. He also showed improved playmaking, recording a 13.6% assist rate—a career high as Sam Houston’s go-to offensive option.
What needs work?
While Wilkerson is a lethal threat from deep—he attempted only about 23% of his shots at the rim, indicating a tendency to stay on the perimeter rather than attack the basket aggressively .
He also averaged just 2.1 assists per game with a 14% assist rate despite being the primary offensive option—suggesting he isn’t a high-level facilitator at the point-guard position.
There are some defensive questions around his game. While his shooting is elite, there's concern about how well his defense will hold up at the high-major level .
Much of Wilkerson’s productivity came against Conference USA opponents. In key games against high-major foes (like Indiana and Baylor), he posted moderate performances—shooting 7-of-16 from deep combined—suggesting he may face tougher challenges stepping up in competition level .
Summary
Wilkerson is primed for a breakout season thanks to his elite scoring mechanics and instant offensive impact. Standing at 6ft 5in, the Sam Houston transfer exploded onto the national scene by averaging 20.5 points per game, shooting 47–48% from the field and an impressive 44.5% from three on high volume—ranking among the nation’s top shooters . With his efficient scoring both off the catch and off the dribble, plus an ability to stretch the floor and create his own shot at all three levels, Wilkerson immediately elevates any backcourt he joins . His move to a Power 5 program in Indiana offers a stage where his shooting, scoring versatility, and savvy can translate into high-impact performances throughout next season.
Justin Moore
Position: Guard | Height: 6ft 3in | Team: Loyola (IL) | Class: Junior
2024/25 Stats:
Background
He began his college career at Drexel in the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA). As a freshman, Moore earned CAA All-Rookie honors, putting up 9.6 points and 3.1 assists per game, and led the team with 77 assists . He elevated his game as a sophomore in 2023-24, leading Drexel with 12.4 points, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 3.6 rebounds per game, earning All-CAA Third Team honors. His standout performance came with a career-high 34 points against Bryant .
For the 2024-25 season, Moore transferred to Loyola Chicago, where head coach Drew Valentine praised him as a “dynamic and poised lead guard” with A-10 level speed and maturity. Playing in nine games before a season-ending knee injury granted him a medical redshirt, he averaged 7.7 points, 5.3 assists, and 2.1 rebounds per game, shooting 41.9% from the field. Up until his injury, he ranked second in the A-10 in assists per game. Highlight moments included a 14-point opener against Chicago State with seven assists, 10 points versus Eureka, and 11 points with eight assists against Eastern Michigan .
What’s to like?
In the 2024-25 season, before his season-ending injury, Moore was second in the Atlantic 10 in assists per game, registering an impressive 5.3 assists per game across nine starts. At Drexel in the previous season, he was his team’s assist leader, averaging 3.5 assists per game and showcasing his ability as a facilitator .
At Drexel, Moore led the team with 12.4 points per game, and hit a career-high 34 points in one standout performance. He put up solid shooting numbers: career averages include around 38.5% from the field and 27.1% from three, plus a career 67.7% free throw rate .
Moore brings more than scoring and passing to the table. At Drexel, he added 3.6 rebounds per game, 1.1 steals per game, and even some rim protection with 0.2 blocks per game, showing he’s a well-rounded guard. In high school, he was a do-it-all performer—averaging 15.2 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds, leading Archbishop Wood to the state championship game .
Loyola's coaching staff praised Moore's ability to step into late-clock situations with mid-range creation on his radar—highlighting his basketball IQ and composure. Described as mature and experienced, he fit seamlessly into the Loyola locker room and team dynamic upon arrival .
What needs work?
Though praised for mid-range craft and playmaking, Moore does a lot of his work from the midrange in, yet the expectation for three-point shooting remains unclear. He has flashed deep-ball ability but it has never been the main part of the way he plays, suggesting it's neither a focal point nor a consistent weapon in his arsenal.
Moving from the CAA to the A-10 represented a notable step up in competition. While his playmaking translated well early, there's an implicit challenge in maintaining the same level of scoring and facilitation against tougher defensive schemes and more athletic defenders. This is a general trend to monitor, given the conference jump.
Moore's season was cut short by a serious leg injury, leading to a medical redshirt. Though he averaged 5.3 assists per game and posted strong early-season contributions, his health and readiness for full action in 2025-26 will be essential to monitor. Durability is always a concern after significant injury hiatus.
Summary
Moore is poised for a breakout season at Loyola because he combines elite playmaking instincts with the poise and maturity of an experienced floor general, and now—fully recovered from last year’s injury—he’ll have the keys to orchestrate the Ramblers’ offense from day one. His 5.3 assists per game in limited action showed his ability to create for teammates, and with a full offseason to sharpen his mid-range scoring and expand his three-point range, Moore has the skill set and leadership to thrive against A-10 competition.
John Camden
Position: Forward | Height: 6ft 8in | Team: California | Class: Senior
2024/25 Stats:
Background
Camden began his college career at Memphis as a highly-touted four-star recruit from Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, ranked 90th nationally by Rivals. Unfortunately, his freshman season was cut short due to injury—he appeared in just one game before being sidelined for the remainder of the year .
Camden transferred to Virginia Tech, where over two seasons he saw limited action off the bench. In 2022–23 (his redshirt freshman year), he appeared in 23 games, averaging around eight minutes per contest, and recorded a season-high eight points versus Syracuse. He also earned recognition on the All-ACC Academic Team . The following year, his involvement remained modest: he played in 14 games, with a season-best nine points, behind the bench, though he did shoot over 40% from three-point range in five separate outings .
Camden’s breakout season came after transferring to Delaware for the 2024–25 campaign. Now a full-time starter, he delivered career-best production: 16.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game, while shooting 46.9% from the field and 41.6% from three . He started all 36 games, earned All-CAA Second Team and CAA All-Tournament Team honors .
What’s to like?
Camden was an excellent shooter for Delaware—he connected on 41.6% from three-point range, making him one of the most reliable long-range threats in the conference . His shooting outburst included a 36-point performance in the CAA Semifinal, going 8-for-10 from deep in that game alone .
Averaging 16.8 points per game on 46.9% field-goal shooting shows that he scores efficiently in various ways . His combination of size and strength allows him to finish around the rim and hold his ground while driving .
Camden averages 2.1 assists per game with a favorable assist-to-turnover ratio—demonstrating that he's not just a shooter but also a capable passer who can create for teammates .
He pulls down 5.5 rebounds per game, anchoring his team on the glass and contributing consistently on the defensive end . His frame and length allow him to disrupt opponents and deter shots effectively .
Camden stepped up during critical moments—earning Mid-Major Madness Player of the Week nod during Delaware’s CAA tournament run after multiple double-doubles and pivotal scoring bursts . He also was named Second Team All-Conference following a breakout senior season .
What needs work?
Camden spent his first three collegiate seasons primarily on the bench—at Memphis and Virginia Tech—appearing in just 38 games and logging fewer than seven minutes per contest, averaging under two points per game . This limited exposure in competitive settings likely delayed his development in game-readiness and adapting to varied defensive looks.
Although Camden’s length and frame help contest shots effectively, there’s limited evidence that he excels as a lateral, switchable defender capable of guarding quicker or more agile perimeter players. Without consistent testing against diverse offensive types, his defensive adaptability remains somewhat unproven .
Camden has delivered spectacular outburst games—like the 36-point, 8-for-10 three-point performance—but whether he can consistently replicate that high-level scoring, especially with elevated defensive attention, is uncertain. Big scoring nights are promising, but sustainable, balanced production requires more frequency and consistency .
Summary
Camden is primed for a breakout season thanks to his elite three-point shooting, proven ability to score in bunches, and the confidence boost from a dominant year at Delaware where he averaged 16.8 points on 41.6% from deep. Now with more experience, a bigger role, and the green light to be a primary scoring option, his size, floor spacing, and knack for big-game performances give him all the tools to shine on a bigger stage.